The Discerning Texan
All that is necessary for evil to triumph, is for good men to do nothing.
-- Edmund Burke
-- Edmund Burke
Wednesday, February 09, 2005
Mosul: Iraq's pivotal city
Ralph Peters, writing in the NY Post, thinks Mosul is the next big battle in Iraq. And it may be for all the marbles:
We see Mosul as a set of tactical problems. Our enemies view it as an indispensable fortress-city on the edge of the Sunni Arab world.
Mosul dominates northern Iraq. It threatens the primary border crossing with Turkey at Zakho, which provides the Kurds with an economic lifeline. It was Saddam's military base for repeated attacks on Dohuk and Irbil, two of the three Kurdish provincial capitals, and it dominates the most-direct route from Turkey to Suleimaniye, the third. The Sunni Arabs know they've lost the oil-rich Kurdish city of Kirkuk, at least for now, but possession of Mosul would guarantee them effective control of the pipelines that carry Kirkuk's oil.
The insurgents and terrorists had to make their move. And they can't quit, despite heavy losses. Our enemies will stop at nothing to prevent Iraqi security forces from gaining traction. They have to sustain the myth of a malevolent occupation. They like to kill us, but they need to kill and discourage the Iraqis who stand against them.
Mosul is the single city our enemies can't afford to lose, the key to all of northern Iraq. Without Mosul, the Sunni Triangle is a shrunken, economically impotent territory, dependent on the mercies of the central government.
The Sunni Arabs retain demographic control of cities such as Ramadi, Baquba, Tikrit and Fallujah, and they've given up the Shi'a south for now. But Mosul contains a combustible ethnic mix. The insurgents are determined to keep the matches coming.
For their part, the international terrorists see Mosul as the border fortress of true Islam. Although the Kurds are overwhelmingly Sunni Muslims, they're far too secular and tolerant for the extremists — and, at its heart, the terror campaign spearheaded by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq is a racist, Arab movement. The terrorists are as hostile to the independent-spirited Kurds as Saddam ever was.
Watch Mosul. From the raids on police stations to suicide bombings and mortar attacks on our bases, preventing the pacification of Mosul has become the primary operational goal of both the insurgents and the terrorists.
What will our enemies do now, after the election? Everything they can to create casualties, stir unrest and prevent the normalization of Mosul's economy. The Sunni Arab insurgents will attempt to exacerbate Turkey's fears about Kurdish power and independence, while the terrorists will continue to send in suicide bombers.
In the wake of the widespread displays of courage in Iraq's first free elections, the insurgents and terrorists feel themselves pressed against the wall. In response, they'll lash out madly — to include attacks against moderate Sunni Arabs.
Our enemies fantasize about turning Mosul into another Mogadishu or Beirut. We need to prevent it from turning into another Fallujah. The odds are on our side, not theirs.
But be prepared for more bloodshed in Mosul. If our enemies lose the city, they've lost Iraq.
We see Mosul as a set of tactical problems. Our enemies view it as an indispensable fortress-city on the edge of the Sunni Arab world.
Mosul dominates northern Iraq. It threatens the primary border crossing with Turkey at Zakho, which provides the Kurds with an economic lifeline. It was Saddam's military base for repeated attacks on Dohuk and Irbil, two of the three Kurdish provincial capitals, and it dominates the most-direct route from Turkey to Suleimaniye, the third. The Sunni Arabs know they've lost the oil-rich Kurdish city of Kirkuk, at least for now, but possession of Mosul would guarantee them effective control of the pipelines that carry Kirkuk's oil.
The insurgents and terrorists had to make their move. And they can't quit, despite heavy losses. Our enemies will stop at nothing to prevent Iraqi security forces from gaining traction. They have to sustain the myth of a malevolent occupation. They like to kill us, but they need to kill and discourage the Iraqis who stand against them.
Mosul is the single city our enemies can't afford to lose, the key to all of northern Iraq. Without Mosul, the Sunni Triangle is a shrunken, economically impotent territory, dependent on the mercies of the central government.
The Sunni Arabs retain demographic control of cities such as Ramadi, Baquba, Tikrit and Fallujah, and they've given up the Shi'a south for now. But Mosul contains a combustible ethnic mix. The insurgents are determined to keep the matches coming.
For their part, the international terrorists see Mosul as the border fortress of true Islam. Although the Kurds are overwhelmingly Sunni Muslims, they're far too secular and tolerant for the extremists — and, at its heart, the terror campaign spearheaded by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq is a racist, Arab movement. The terrorists are as hostile to the independent-spirited Kurds as Saddam ever was.
Watch Mosul. From the raids on police stations to suicide bombings and mortar attacks on our bases, preventing the pacification of Mosul has become the primary operational goal of both the insurgents and the terrorists.
What will our enemies do now, after the election? Everything they can to create casualties, stir unrest and prevent the normalization of Mosul's economy. The Sunni Arab insurgents will attempt to exacerbate Turkey's fears about Kurdish power and independence, while the terrorists will continue to send in suicide bombers.
In the wake of the widespread displays of courage in Iraq's first free elections, the insurgents and terrorists feel themselves pressed against the wall. In response, they'll lash out madly — to include attacks against moderate Sunni Arabs.
Our enemies fantasize about turning Mosul into another Mogadishu or Beirut. We need to prevent it from turning into another Fallujah. The odds are on our side, not theirs.
But be prepared for more bloodshed in Mosul. If our enemies lose the city, they've lost Iraq.
