The Discerning Texan

All that is necessary for evil to triumph, is for good men to do nothing.
-- Edmund Burke
Tuesday, August 08, 2006

August 22: "Apocalypse Now"?

Bernard Lewis is among the preeminent scholars of Islamic history in the Western World—if not the preeminent authority. His seminal work "Islam and the West" has become perhaps the most widely-read study of Islamic thought and history in the English language. So—despite the fact that I and others have started to pay attention to the threat of an Apocalyptic August—it gives me no great pleasure to point today to Mr. Lewis’ essay in this morning’s Wall Street Journal, titled simply—and ominously—“August 22”.

Over the past several days a number of sources have indicated that the Iranians might attempt one or more attacks on Isreal and/or the West on a “grand scale’ as an almost nihilistic attempt to usher in the “Return of the 12th Imam” (this would be analogous to the Christian concept of the “Rapture”).

The problem is—as has been pointed out in the last several days and weeks by myself, Frau Budgie, Debbie Hamilton, Robert Spencer, Barbara Lerner, Charles Johnson of Little Green Footballs, plus David Horowitz’s FrontPage Magazine, and one of Horowitz’s fellow ‘60’s ex-radicals who presides over the blog called Amber—among many others. Amber, for example, quotes the publication Geostrategy-Direct as saying (emphases Amber’s):

The U.S. intelligence community has not been surprised by Iran’s refusal to respond to a Western incentive package to suspend its uranium enrichment.

Intelligence sources said Iran, following North Korea’s model, intends to delay any response or negotiations for as long as possible.

The European Union and the United States demanded that Iran reply to the Western incentive package of nuclear technology, fuel and aircraft by June 29. But Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said Teheran would submit an answer by Aug. 22.

The U.S. intelligence community has been trying to figure out why Ahmadinejad chose that date. Sources said the community was stumped until some Islam experts translated the Gregorian date to that of the Muslim calendar. […] Ahmadinejad could be hinting to the West that he is preparing a major attack on Israel. Or, the Iranian president could be warning that unless the West caves in, he would escalate tension in the region. The lightening in Mohammed’s story could represent Iranian missiles.

What is clear is that Ahmadinejad does not see himself as an Iranian leader, but as a Muslim prophet, using imagery to portray himself as a messiah for both Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims.

People often underestimate the Iranian President Ahmadinijad. I do not know how much the intelligence community understands the subtleties of the Iranian President, but there is much evidence that he has a vision for the future, a vision that encompasses catastrophic means to his apocolyptic end. In a cover story to this week’s Weekly Standard, Reading Ahmadinejad in Washington, Hillel Fradkin persuasively argues for political elites to pay attention to Ahmadinijad’s letter to President Bush in May of 2006:

Neither the Bush administration nor its many critics appear to appreciate the significance, ideological and practical, of the letter. Nor do they appear to appreciate the remarkable boldness of Ahmadinejad personally. For the formal characteristics of the letter as well as its substance have ancient and modern analogs–letters of Muhammad to the Byzantine, Persian, and Ethiopian emperors of his day warning them to accept Islam and his rule or suffer the consequences, and a letter from Khomeini to Mikhail Gorbachev along similar lines. Thus, Ahmadinejad presents himself as the true heir of Muhammad and Khomeini and may even be suggesting that he is a founder himself. At the least, he presents himself as the spokesman and leader of Islam and the Muslim world in its entirety, transcending the Shiite/Sunni divide. Both this boldness and this claim are consistent with the whole series of pronouncements and actions Ahmadinejad has taken in the brief period since he was elected last summer. But the letter, in its form and substance, raises this to a new and much higher level of clarity and power as well as menace.

I also quoted Fradkin’s article as a premonition to the mindset of Ahmadinejad’s “Dr. Strangelove” mentality.

But when an esteemed scholar like Lewis takes notice of both the date August 22, as he did today, and marries it with his scholarly knowledge of Islamic history, the result is quite disturbing. Here are just a few troubling snippets of Lewis’ essay (go and read it all here).

Lewis begins by discussing the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction, which prevented enemies like the Soviet Union and the United States from taking the ultimate step (an example of this “restraint” when facing Armeggedon was the Missile Crisis in October, 1962). But then Lewis goes on to explain why a nuclear Iran could be a very different animal indeed when it comes to MAD:

There is a radical difference between the Islamic Republic of Iran and other governments with nuclear weapons. This difference is expressed in what can only be described as the apocalyptic worldview of Iran's present rulers. This worldview and expectation, vividly expressed in speeches, articles and even schoolbooks, clearly shape the perception and therefore the policies of Ahmadinejad and his disciples.

Lewis then enlightens us as to the radical fundamentalist Islamic vision—which appears to be epidemic in the Iranian mullahcracy:

In Islam, as in Judaism and Christianity, there are certain beliefs concerning the cosmic struggle at the end of time -- Gog and Magog, anti-Christ, Armageddon, and for Shiite Muslims, the long awaited return of the Hidden Imam, ending in the final victory of the forces of good over evil, however these may be defined. Mr. Ahmadinejad and his followers clearly believe that this time is now, and that the terminal struggle has already begun and is indeed well advanced. It may even have a date, indicated by several references by the Iranian president to giving his final answer to the U.S. about nuclear development by Aug. 22. This was at first reported as "by the end of August," but Mr. Ahmadinejad's statement was more precise.

What is the significance of Aug. 22? This year, Aug. 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to "the farthest mosque," usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (c.f., Koran XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel, and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Mr. Ahmadinejad plans any such cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind.

A passage from the Ayatollah Khomeini, quoted in an 11th-grade Iranian schoolbook, is revealing. "I am decisively announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [i.e., the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against their whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom which is martyrdom. Either we shake one another's hands in joy at the victory of Islam in the world, or all of us will turn to eternal life and martyrdom. In both cases, victory and success are ours."

These facts, when read together with Iran’s statements about “August 22”, the “distraction” of Hezbollah suddenly launcing missiles into Israel and thus diverting its attention to Lebanon, and the stubborn refusal of Iran to even discuss ramping down its nuclear weapons program all lead one towards a logical conclusion:

In this context, mutual assured destruction, the deterrent that worked so well during the Cold War, would have no meaning. At the end of time, there will be general destruction anyway. What will matter will be the final destination of the dead -- hell for the infidels, and heaven for the believers. For people with this mindset, MAD is not a constraint; it is an inducement.

(emphases mine...) Got that?

As August winds on, it might be time for the President to raise our alert level to "Orange" or even "Red". And perhaps the Isrealis should do the same. We may be swiftly approaching the point of world history where madmen usher in an apocalypse such as the world has not yet seen. I am not only speaking of nuclear weapons; I am speaking of bioterror, dirty bombs, you name it... And these things could happen here.

Too, I hope our leadership sees and understands the seriousness of this date—and is on high alert for a massive attack from Iran and/or Syria. I would imagine our leadership and our allies (especially Israel) are not blind to this date and to this possibility—one would certainly hope not.. But one would also hope that saner minds in Iran and other Muslim countries will soon step forward to snuff out this madness at the source. I certainly have no wish to be a martyr; my guess is that there are a lot of people in Iran and Syria that feel that way too. If so, the time for them to act to overthrow these evil regimes may be quickly running out.

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For more discussion of the nightmare scenario, see also The Missiles of 27 Rajab in FrontPage Magazine. A very chilling and informative analysis of what we may be facing in the coming days.

DiscerningTexan, 8/08/2006 03:40:00 PM |