The Discerning Texan

All that is necessary for evil to triumph, is for good men to do nothing.
-- Edmund Burke
Saturday, January 06, 2007

Military Changes Explained: It is ALL about Iran

AJ Strata has an insightful take at the likely strategic reasons for the Military Command changes at CENTCOM and in Iraq. From all appearances, it's all about Iran--and that is a good thing:

There have been a lot of indications “on the ground” that the West is preparing to deal with Iran and the nuclear desires. There have been an increased number of naval vessels in the area. The talk of an Iraq ’surge’ of troops could accomplish removing pressure from a very major source of the fighting in Iraq - Iranian backed forces and material. And Ralph Peters notes another obvious indication that time is running out on Irans dangerous game:

Word that Adm. William Fallon will move laterally from our Pacific Command to take charge of Central Command - responsible for the Middle East - while two ground wars rage in the region baffled the media.

Why put a swabbie in charge of grunt operations?

There’s a one-word answer: Iran.

Assigning a Navy aviator and combat veteran to oversee our military operations in the Persian Gulf makes perfect sense when seen as a preparatory step for striking Iran’s nuclear-weapons facilities - if that becomes necessary.

While the Air Force would deliver the heaviest tonnage of ordnance in a campaign to frustrate Tehran’s quest for nukes, the toughest strategic missions would fall to our Navy. Iran would seek to retaliate asymmetrically by attacking oil platforms and tankers, closing the Strait of Hormuz - and trying to hit oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf emirates.

Only the U.S. Navy - hopefully, with Royal Navy and Aussie vessels underway beside us - could keep the oil flowing to a thirsty world.

Read the rest here.

Meanwhile former Inelligence Analyst Spook86 weighs in, with similar conclusions (read the whole thing...):

More intriguging is Mr. Bush's apparent choice to succeed General John Abizaid as Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which controls all of our military forces in the Middle East. Breaking with tradition, President Bush will reportedly named Admiral William Fallon to succeed Abizaid, who plans to retire in March. Fallon is currently commander of U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM), where he has won plaudits for his handling of military issues relating to the region's biggest threats--China and North Korea. Admiral Fallon spent most of his career as an aviator and is something of a rarity among the Navy's senior leaders--he is not an Annapolis graduate. Fallon earned his commission through the naval ROTC program at Villanova in 1967.

Until now, leadership at CENTCOM has rotated between Army and Marine Corps generals. The nomination of Admiral Fallon may be another harbinger of the "new" approach in Iraq and the wider War on Terror, using a wider range of military assets to fight insurgents on various fronts. Fallon's appointment also suggests a growing concern with regional issues--namely, Iran's nuclear program--that may ultimately require some sort of U.S. military action. [Emphasis mine - DT] Fallon's nomination comes amid reports that the U.S. Navy is planning to increase its presence in the Persian Gulf region, with the addition of another carrier battle group. Given his experience in managing forces across the Pacific, the White House--and new Defense Secretary Robert Gates --may believe that Fallon is better suited for implementing a strategy, particularly as it relates to the Middle East as a whole.

To replace General George Casey as our senior commander in Iraq, Mr. Bush has tapped the most logical choice: Army Lieutenant General David Petraeus. We've written about General Petraeus on several occasions, most recently when word of Abizaid's retirement was announced last month. We thought--and still believe--that Petraeus would be an excellent choice to lead CENTCOM, but he's still a relatively "junior" three-star, and it would be difficult for him to catapult over more senior officers to get a fourth star and the CINC's job. That will happen, in time--just not right now.This will be General Petraeus's third tour in Iraq. He led the 101st Airborne Division during the 2003 invasion, and later salvaged failing efforts to train the Iraqi Army. Petraeus is one of the Army's leading experts on counter-insurgency operations, and he reportedly supports a more aggressive approach to the War in Iraq, including an increase in troop strength. In short, he's the right man for the right job at exactly the right time.

DiscerningTexan, 1/06/2007 03:39:00 PM |