The Discerning Texan

If we leave, two things happen. First, the Kurds and Shia Arabs take care of the Sunni Arab terrorists the traditional Middle Eastern way. That gets very ugly, with massive civilian casualties and most of the Sunni Arab population turning into refugees. Any criticism is deflected by insisting its all about self-defense and justice for Saddams victims.

There's also the risk of a civil war between Shia Arab factions (backed by Iran and the Arab Gulf states, respectively.) The Turks will keep the Kurds in check, no matter what, although if we leave the Turks will be tempted to annex northern Iraq (and its oil fields), which used to be part of Turkey (not an imperial province), until 1919.

The Shia Arabs are now about two-thirds of the population, and they are gearing up for a real civil war. The factions backed Iran (especially the Sadr and Badr groups) are trying to take control by force. The majority of Shia Arabs want power, but they don't want a religious dictatorship. These "democratic" Shia Arabs are arming and getting more violent in their resistance to Iran-sponsored militants. More of the terrorism in Shia areas (which is a small fraction of what the Sunni Arab terrorists are creating) is directed against other Shia political groups, not foreign troops.

There's always the threat that Iran would simply invade Iraq, and install an "Islamic Republic" (religious dictatorship similar to the one in Iran). With no American troops there, what's to prevent this? The Arab Gulf States cannot stop the Iranians, although the Turks might be persuaded to. The Iranians could avoid that by making a side deal with the Turks, involving how to handle the Kurds, before going in. The Iranian government sees democratic Iraq as a threat, because most Iranians want a real democracy, and they are not getting it because of the religious dictatorship they are stuck with. The Iranian radical groups, in the form of the Quds Force, keeps the pot boiling in Shia Iraq so that Iraq does not become a base for Iranian democrats.

Meanwhile, opponents of the Iraqi operations back in the United States are getting nervous about the success of the security operations in Baghdad and its suburbs. The fact that nearly all the Sunni Arab tribes have joined the government is seen as a political disaster by many U.S. politicians who have declared Iraq a failed venture for the United States. It's a bizarre situation, and long has been. You only have to visit web sites frequented by Iraqis or American troops, to see that what is reported in most of the media about Iraq is invented, or distorted beyond all reason into an alternate reality.

Labels: Democrat Sabotage, Iran, Iraq