The Discerning Texan
All that is necessary for evil to triumph, is for good men to do nothing.
-- Edmund Burke
-- Edmund Burke
Monday, December 03, 2007
Venezuela: A Victory for the 'NO'
We waited until some of the initial confusion was over before posting the outcome of Venezuela's Dec. 2nd referendum. Reuters prematurely announced a victory for Chavez, but The New York Times waited until after midnight to post a comprehensive article by Simon Romero announcing the defeat of the controversial referendum, which would have expanded President Hugo Chavez' powers and swept his nation further into the radical left.
Our best source of information as we awaited the outcome was blogger Daniel Duquenal of Venezuela News and Views. Daniel, who reports directly from Venezuela, updated his blog 11 times throughout the day as he tried to sort through the incoming (and often conflicting) information regarding election results. The inordinately long delays were particularly frustrating to Venezuelans in light of the fact that the government reportedly spent $3million on a state-of-the-art electoral system which was designed to improve both the speed and accuracy of the election process.
On November 27, Daniel posted some pertinent questions as to what would happen if the referendum were defeated:
"Will the government gracefully accept that its project has run its course and that now it is time to tone down and start managing the country? Will they do fraud? Can Chavez govern for the next five years? What will happen with the National Assembly whose constitutional project has been rejected by the country? How can it keep pretending it represents the whole country after such a rejection of the 36 articles they included without discussion? Clearly, even though Chavez still will have 5 years ahead it will require great skills and diplomacy to manage them. I am afraid he does not have them and we are headed with more trouble."
Now that the NO has won its victory, the questions remain unanswered. Venezuelan society faces many problems -- the highest inflation in Latin America (16%); lack of basic supplies; a housing shortage; poor education and health care; an economy dependent on oil prices that may come crashing down at any moment; and a president who, faced with failure to gain power legally, may resort to abuse and repression.
While the future of Venezuela remains uncertain, the defeat of Chavez' referendum was a victory for the Venezuelan people. According to political analysts, the existing constitution -- even when in need of reparations -- contains the basic elements to pave the road to democracy and the reduction of poverty and inequality in Venezuela. With the proper amendments and the right leadership, Venezuela can progress both socially and economically. That is the GOOD news. The BAD news is the inescapable fact that Hugo Chavez will remain in power for five more years. Chavez is no statesman. He continues to alienate national leaders, to ignore diplomatic protocol at international summits, to make economic decisions that are detrimental to his country, and to make threats he cannot possibly carry out. Even if he accepts the overwhelming failure represented by the defeat of his referendum, he will undoubtedly unleash the hellish fury of a scorned tyrant.
Nevertheless, perhaps the people of Venezuela will view the future with a sense of newness and hope, as blogger Daniel did in his last post of the day:
". . . it (the constitution) is the only thing that all Venezuelans have in common. Had the SI won tonight it would have become a red book that would have been used by one part of the country to control the other part. Thus it would have stopped being a constitution. In spite of all the obscene governmental advantage, all the threats and blackmails, the Venezuelan people found the strength to say NO."
Our best source of information as we awaited the outcome was blogger Daniel Duquenal of Venezuela News and Views. Daniel, who reports directly from Venezuela, updated his blog 11 times throughout the day as he tried to sort through the incoming (and often conflicting) information regarding election results. The inordinately long delays were particularly frustrating to Venezuelans in light of the fact that the government reportedly spent $3million on a state-of-the-art electoral system which was designed to improve both the speed and accuracy of the election process.
On November 27, Daniel posted some pertinent questions as to what would happen if the referendum were defeated:
"Will the government gracefully accept that its project has run its course and that now it is time to tone down and start managing the country? Will they do fraud? Can Chavez govern for the next five years? What will happen with the National Assembly whose constitutional project has been rejected by the country? How can it keep pretending it represents the whole country after such a rejection of the 36 articles they included without discussion? Clearly, even though Chavez still will have 5 years ahead it will require great skills and diplomacy to manage them. I am afraid he does not have them and we are headed with more trouble."
Now that the NO has won its victory, the questions remain unanswered. Venezuelan society faces many problems -- the highest inflation in Latin America (16%); lack of basic supplies; a housing shortage; poor education and health care; an economy dependent on oil prices that may come crashing down at any moment; and a president who, faced with failure to gain power legally, may resort to abuse and repression.
While the future of Venezuela remains uncertain, the defeat of Chavez' referendum was a victory for the Venezuelan people. According to political analysts, the existing constitution -- even when in need of reparations -- contains the basic elements to pave the road to democracy and the reduction of poverty and inequality in Venezuela. With the proper amendments and the right leadership, Venezuela can progress both socially and economically. That is the GOOD news. The BAD news is the inescapable fact that Hugo Chavez will remain in power for five more years. Chavez is no statesman. He continues to alienate national leaders, to ignore diplomatic protocol at international summits, to make economic decisions that are detrimental to his country, and to make threats he cannot possibly carry out. Even if he accepts the overwhelming failure represented by the defeat of his referendum, he will undoubtedly unleash the hellish fury of a scorned tyrant.
Nevertheless, perhaps the people of Venezuela will view the future with a sense of newness and hope, as blogger Daniel did in his last post of the day:
". . . it (the constitution) is the only thing that all Venezuelans have in common. Had the SI won tonight it would have become a red book that would have been used by one part of the country to control the other part. Thus it would have stopped being a constitution. In spite of all the obscene governmental advantage, all the threats and blackmails, the Venezuelan people found the strength to say NO."
