The Discerning Texan

All that is necessary for evil to triumph, is for good men to do nothing.
-- Edmund Burke
Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Reality Bites

Looking at the numbers, Romney would have to make up a lot of lost ground in the upcoming states to win--and it won't be easy. But, if Romney does choose to soldier on it could conceivably result in a brokered convention. We have already discussed "The Fred Scenario" here, but Allahpundit does throw a bit of cold water on that theory:
CNN puts Maverick at 615 delegates but with only 56 in his column thus far from California. Team McCain says the real number is closer to 775. Which means…

Speaking with reporters today, McCain adviser Charlie Black said, “To date, we have 775 delegates, Romney has 284, Huckabee has 205. It takes 1,191 to clinch the nomination. There are 963 left to be chosen, so Romney or Huckabee would have to have all of them — all of them — to get to 1,191. Now you can’t do that because a majority of those 963 are chosen in proportional primaries, which means you’d have to get 100% if the vote to get them all.

Update: What’s the likelihood of Mitt blowing McCain out in the remaining states?

[N]early half the coming reaces are open contests — those that allow Democrats and independents in which McCain has fared well. “To make things worse for Mitt, the open contests are in larger states (Ohio, Texas, Indiana).

Update: CPAC may be Romney’s last hurrah.

Update: Reader James P. turns Charlie Black’s logic around in an e-mail:

All Mitt (and Huckabee) need to do to deny McCain enough delegates to win the nomination is win 547 of the remaining 963 delegates - roughly 57%. Which means it will go to the convention, where anything can happen. Given that around 66% of Republicans voted for someone other than McCain last night, it’s not out of the question, especially given most of the upcoming contests are awarded on a proportional basis and McCain won’t be taking primaries outright (like he did last night).

All that does is lock up the VP nomination for Huckabee, though, doesn’t it? Maverick goes to the convention with, say, 1,000 delegates needing 191 more to win. He pulls Huck aside, the deal is done, and he gets the Huck faction in return for promising him the bottom of the ticket.

It does look grim, speaking strictly from Mitt's position (and Fred's...). A brokered convention is possible, but I think Allah may be on to something when it comes to Huckleberry: my guess is that the Huckster has already been promised either VP or a cabinet position (Huckabee seems tailor-made for the current mentality within the State Department, given his "turn the other cheek" foreign policy statements, including his stated willingness to "negotiate" with the Mullahs...).

The sad part is, Huckabee has no idea how much damage he has done to the Republican party--the former Baptist preacher has made a deal with the devil. And I have serious doubts, very grave doubts, that this devil--with or without his co-conspirator in tow--can be elected. There are many Republicans who quite frankly can't stand John McCain. And those folks will most likely not be writing big checks to the RNC this summer and fall.

Is there solace that it took a Jimmy Carter to make a Ronald Reagan possible? Maybe, but only if we have enough Senators to fillibuster the Socialist agenda (or enough House members...) And quite frankly, it is difficult for me to see McCain pulling in any staunch Republicans on his very marginal coattails.

Barring something dreadful like another attack on America, Mike Huckabee may have just planted the seeds for a Democrat "Perfect Storm".

Et tu Hucki?

UPDATE: The McCain camp and/or MSNBC (two peas in a pod?) appears to have overstated the Maverick delegate count: it is 682, not 775. But this does not change much the calculus for the remaining delegates for the other two candidates. As long as Huckabee continues to split the conservative vote with his "aw shucks" campaign to be McCain's VP, a brokered convention would not favor Fred.
DiscerningTexan, 2/06/2008 01:29:00 PM |