The Discerning Texan

Notwithstanding what Warren Buffett had to say last weekend--that we were already in a recession (and despite my being a firm believer in "Value Investing" using the Buffett model--his understanding of the definition of "Recession" seems to have escaped him with all the other Woodstock activity in Omaha over the weekend--or maybe Buffett is just saying it because he is a Democrat and khe new it would get headlines...).

Bottom line, the anti-Capitalist media has been trying to magically transform what is NOT A RECESSION into the perception that we are in one; and who knows, with people like Buffett chiming in, it could still become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Not exactly doing what is best for the country when people are going to start dumping stock whenever Buffett speaks, but I guess for some, bringing the left to power is a lot more important than telling the truth.

Truth has after all not exactly been the top criteria of news organizations in crafting a story in this election year, but I am a bit disappointed with Warren, who I generally admire. Hopefully he is taking a little bit better care of my money than he is with his harmful use of financial terminology. Just for the brain dead: a recession is what happens when we get two straight quarters of negative GDP growth; we haven't even had ONE. And this week the Fed announced that this quarter was more positive than the previous one.

This is as an appropriate time as any to roll out NRO's Jerry Bowyer's take on this so-called "recession":

Hat tip to my friend Larry Kudlow, official coiner of the term “recessionistas.” What is a recessionista, you ask? When you see reporters badgering the president for not admitting that “we’re already in a recession,” you’re seeing the recessionistas. When you hear financial pundits confidently asserting — without the slightest hint of self-doubt — that we’ve entered a recession, you’re hearing the recessionistas.

The problem with the recessionistas is that for the past five years they’ve been wrong. And now, right when their recession cries were reaching fever pitch, it appears as though they’re going to be wrong again.

Monday’s data from the Institute for Supply Management is our first real glimpse at the second quarter of 2008 — you now, the one we’re in now. The above chart shows that the service sector — which is by far a better guide to the ebbs and flows of our economy than the manufacturing one — bottomed in January and has been recovering steadily ever since. It is now at an expansionary 52 percent. (Anything above 50 is positive growth territory.)

When you hear a recessionista say, “Yes, we grew in the first quarter, but since then . . . blah, blah, blah,” show them this ISM report. The service sector has only gotten stronger since the first quarter ended. The recession that never was seems to be over.

Recessionistas--I like that! I never thought Warren Buffet would be any kind of "-ista" (other than a capital-ista), but that kind of "conversion" seems to be happening to a lot of Democrats this year. For Democrats (even Buffett I guess), given the choice of propaganda or truth, truth seems to be on the short end a lot this year.

Here is the most depressing thing about the false "recession": possibly the most impotent campaigner since Michael "Tank" Dukakis or Adlai Stevenson--yes our own "nominee" John McCain--seems disinclined to point virtually any Democrat's error in judgment. He's so...above all that, don't you know... he would not want to be viewed by that mean old Keith Olberman as "partisan" or anything like that (good luck with that one, Mav...). Obviously McCain prefers to be viewed as a Democrat by Democrats and as a Republican by, um, Chuck Hagel and Olympia Snowe... We'll see how the rest of the GOP goes for him, but I can report to you that I am now starting to feel that Chris Matthews "electricity" running up my leg just thinking about McCain's "straight talk" express--oh wait, it is just my leg asleep...

I'm starting to hope that McCain picks Rudy Giuliani as a running mate (simply because at least Rudy is tough and has the cojones to fight for what he thinks is right, and is not such a spineless wimp about taking on his opponents... ) If he does, maybe we will luck out and the press will follow Rudy around because McCain is so damn boring.

Obviously I am not feeling too inspired about McCain or even about what is going to happen this fall, particularly after seeing Newt Gingrich's comments today. Very, very sobering. But read it all anyway.