The Discerning Texan
-- Edmund Burke
Thursday, October 16, 2008
New Polls--Room for Hope?
He’s up a point in each: 50/46 now in Rasmussen, his best showing this month, and 49/47 in Gallup’s model of traditional likely voters. In the expanded model, which tries to account for the higher turnout among new voters that will probably occur this year, it’s 51/45. The bad news? Neither tracker includes data gathered after the debate, which means he’s headed for another downturn if the CNN and CBS snap polls last night were right (but a major uptick if Treach’s poll of one was!). The good news? From Red State, for what it’s worth:
I have an interesting story to relay that took place earlier this week between my boss (a senior VP in the company I work for) and one of the Obama campaigns’ internal pollsters…
As she was explaining her perspective it dawned on her to ask why he (the Obama internal pollster) was interested in her view of Palin. He replied that Obama’s campaign is extremely nervous about the energized republican base and what he called the “unkown factor” regarding Palin’s draw as a candidate.
In the polls they’re conducting around the country, and my boss wasn’t able to relay specific numbers, the Obama campaign is very, very worried about how Palin appears to be energizing whole groups of people who don’t typically get energized about politics, precisely because she appeals so strongly to the middle class, as well as women and dissatisfied republicans that stayed home in 2006.
More than that, they don’t know how to guage and predict the support of people typically turned off by politics, but that are enamored with her “up from the bootstraps” appeal.
I say all of this because this pollster conveyed strong concern about their standing going into the homestretch. They are very concerned about winning the vote of the middle class and whole swaths of the electorate they consider the “unkowns.” In fact, and based on her conversation with this internal pollster for Obama, he’s not ahead in the polls as we’re being told. He’s at best tied.
I.e. it’s not just The One who might have an impact on that expanded likely voter model. Remember, Tapper also claimed recently to have heard from sources in the Obama camp that objects in their rear-view mirror are closer than they appear. Exit question: Perfunctory expectations-lowering or is Maverick really creeping up?